In the Texas U.S. Senate Race, Talarico Leads Paxton by 1% & In the Texas Gubernatorial Race, Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 4%

A new report from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Texas 2026: U.S. Senate, Governor, and Other Statewide Races, provides the vote intention and candidate evaluations of Texas likely voters in the statewide contests for U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner. The report is based on a representative survey of 1,800 Texas likely voters (margin of error of +/- 2.31%) conducted between September 15 and 19, 2026.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico (47%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (46%) by 1 percentage point, with 3% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 4% undecided.  While 99% of Democratic likely voters intend to vote for Talarico, and 0% for Paxton, only 84% of Republican likely voters intend to vote for Paxton, with 7% intending to cast a ballot for Talarico.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the Founding Director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, noted that “Paxton enjoys a significant advantage over Talarico among men, older voters and White voters, while Talarico enjoys a significant advantage over Paxton among women, younger voters and voters of color, especially Black voters, who support Talarico over Paxton by an 87 to 10 percent margin.”

In the Texas Gubernatorial election, Republican Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (45%) by 4 percentage points, with 2% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 4% undecided.

In the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, the Center’s July survey found that only 33% of likely voters knew enough about the Republican candidate, Bo French, to have an opinion of him. Adams however highlighted that “seven weeks, and several tweets later, 54 percent of likely voters now know enough about French to have an opinion of him, with French’s net-favorability declining from a plus 5 percent in late July to a negative 10 percent in mid-September.”

The survey also assessed with which internal wing of the Republican Party the Texas Republican voters surveyed identify most. Nearly two-fifths (39%) of these Texas Republicans identify most with MAGA Republicans, followed closely by the 37% who identify most with Traditional Conservative Republicans, and then, by the 15% who identify as Moderate Republicans. While 98% of MAGA Republicans and 86% of Traditional Conservative Republicans intend to vote for Paxton in the U.S. Senate election, the same is true for only 59% of Moderate Republicans, 27% of whom intend to cast a ballot for Talarico.

Finally, the survey asked these same Republican likely voters with which one of seven Texas Republican political leaders (current and former) they identify the most. The three political figures with the highest proportion of Republican voters who identify most closely with them are U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (30%), Texas Governor Greg Abbott (25%) and former President George W. Bush (16%).

In other Texas statewide elections:

• Lieutenant Governor: Republican Dan Patrick (47%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (41%) by 6 percentage points, with 3% backing third party candidates and 9% undecided.
• Attorney General: Republican Mayes Middleton (47%) leads Democrat Nathan Johnson (42%) by 5 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 9% undecided.
• Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines (47%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (39%) by 8 percentage points, with 3% supporting third party candidates and 11% undecided.
• Land Commissioner: Republican Dawn Buckingham (47%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (39%) by 8 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Neill Snider and 12% undecided.
• Agriculture Commissioner: Republican Nate Sheets (45%) leads Democrat Clayton Tucker (39%) by 6 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Austin Kelly and 14% undecided.
• Railroad Commissioner: Republican Bo French (44%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (42%) by 2 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 11% undecided.

A link to the report can be found here.