Talarico Leads Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate Election by 2% & Abbott Leads Hinojosa in the Texas Gubernatorial Election by 6%

Two new reports from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center highlight the competitive state of play in Texas’s statewide electoral contests three months before the November 3, 2026 election and reveal Black Texas voters’ opinions about Jasmine Crockett’s loss in the March Democratic primary, the Texas Democratic Party’s relationship with Black voters, and the likelihood that Black Texans will turn out to vote in November.

The first report, Texas 2026: U.S. Senate, Governor, and Other Statewide Races, provides the vote intention of Texas likely voters in the statewide contests for U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner. The report is based on a representative survey of 1,200 Texas likely voters (margin of error of +/- 2.83%) conducted between July 27 and July 30, 2026.

In the U.S. Senate election, Democrat James Talarico (47%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (45%) by 2 percentage points, with 2% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 6% undecided.  While 97% of Democratic likely voters intend to vote for Talarico, and a mere 1% for Paxton, only 85% of Republican likely voters intend to vote for Paxton, with 5% intending to cast a ballot for Talarico.

In the Texas Gubernatorial election, Republican Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (43%) by 6 percentage points, with 3% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 5% undecided.  Nine out of ten Republicans (90%) intend to vote for Abbott, and 2% for Hinojosa, while 93% of Democrats intend to vote for Hinojosa, and 2% for Abbott.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the Founding Director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, highlighted that “while virtually all Paxton voters (96%) intend to vote for Abbott, and none (0%) for Hinojosa, only 89% of Abbott voters intend to vote for Paxton, and 3% for Talarico.” Dr. Adams further noted that “in a similar vein, while 98% of Hinojosa voters intend to vote for Talarico and 0% for Paxton, only 90% of Talarico voters intend to vote for Hinojosa, and 4% for Abbott.”

In the other five statewide contests examined in the report, the Republican candidates’ respective leads range from 3 to 7 percentage points, with, though, more than two-thirds of likely voters still not knowing enough about all five Democratic candidates to have an opinion of them. The Republican candidates are on average better known, but even many of them remain unknown quantities in the eyes of a majority of Texas likely voters.

The second report, The State of Black Voter Opinion in Texas: Between Jasmine Crockett’s March Primary Defeat and the November U.S. Senate Election, explores the opinions of Black Texas voters regarding the March 2026 U.S. Senate Democratic primary, the Texas Democratic Party and Black voters, and the impact of Jasmine Crockett’s March primary defeat on Black voter turnout in November. The report is based on a representative survey of 500 recent Black voters (margin of error of +/- 4.38%) conducted between July 27 and August 2, 2026.

The report finds that 80% of Black Texas voters believe that Jasmine Crockett’s race was either very important (54%) or somewhat important (26%) in influencing non-Black primary voters’ decisions not to vote for Crockett in the March 2026 Democratic primary.  More than three-quarters (77%) of these Black Texas voters also agree (43% strongly and 34% somewhat) with the statement that “The Democratic Party in Texas takes Black voters for granted.” However, when asked to reflect on the impact of Crockett’s loss in the March primary, only 7% of Black voters say they are now less likely to vote in November due to the congresswoman’s defeat, while 32% say they are now more likely to vote, and 61% indicate that the primary result had no impact on their likelihood of turning out in November.

In other Texas statewide elections:

• Lieutenant Governor: Republican Dan Patrick (46%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (39%) by 7 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Anthony Cristo and 12% undecided.
• Attorney General: Republican Mayes Middleton (46%) leads Democrat Nathan Johnson (41%) by 5 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 10% undecided.
• Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines (46%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (39%) by 7 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza and 13% undecided.
• Land Commissioner: Republican Dawn Buckingham (45%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (40%) by 5 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Neill Snider and 13% undecided.
• Railroad Commissioner: Republican Bo French (44%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (41%) by 3 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 13% undecided.

A link to the statewide election report (Texas 2026) can be found here and a link to the report on Black Texas voters (The State of Black Voter Opinion in Texas) can be found here.