Competitive Elections in South Texas Could Hold the Key to Control of the U.S. House (The 2026 South TX U.S. House Elections: TX-15. TX-28, & TX-34)

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University has released a new report on the November 2026 elections in Texas’s 15th, 28th, and 34th congressional districts. These districts are considered by nonpartisan organizations like the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to be the three most competitive congressional races in Texas, and key skirmishes in the national battle between Democrats and Republicans for control of the U.S. House during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office. The 28th and 34th Congressional Districts are also two of the five seats currently held by Texas Democrats that were targeted by Republican mapmakers as part of the 2025 mid-decade redistricting designed to increase the number of Texas U.S. House seats held by Republicans.

The report draws on three separate public opinion surveys conducted among likely voters in each of the three congressional districts between August 18 and August 22, 2026. The sample size for the TX-15 and TX-34 surveys is 700 (margin of error of +/- 3.70%), while that for the TX-28 survey is 600 (margin of error of +/- 4.00%).

In Texas’s 15th Congressional District (TX-15), the Democratic candidate, Bobby Pulido (50%), leads Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz (45%) by 5 percentage points, with 5% of likely voters undecided. Pulido, a two-time Latin Grammy award winner, is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters and unfavorably by 34%, with 21% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. De La Cruz, a two-term congresswoman, is viewed favorably by 41% of likely voters and unfavorably by 43%, with 16% not knowing enough about her to have an opinion.

In Texas’s 28th Congressional District (TX-28), Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar (45%) leads Republican Tano Tijerina (34%) by 11 percentage points, with 6% of likely voters backing the Green Party’s Marlón Durán and 15% undecided. Cuellar, an eleven-term congressman, is viewed favorably by 41% of likely voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 18% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. Tijerina, a three-term county judge (i.e., county executive) of Webb County (Laredo), is viewed favorably by 29% of likely voters and unfavorably by 31%, with 40% of likely voters not knowing enough about him to have an opinion (twice the proportion who are unfamiliar with Cuellar).

In Texas’s 34th Congressional District (TX-34), Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez (45%) leads Republican Eric Flores (42%) by 3 percentage points, with the Green Party’s Eddie Espinoza and the Libertarian Party’s Chris Royal supported by 3% and 2% of likely voters, and with 8% of likely voters undecided. Gonzalez, a five-term congressman, is viewed favorably by 35% of likely voters and unfavorably by 36%, with 29% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. Flores, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas, is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters and unfavorably by 35%, with 32% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the Founding Director of Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, noted that “the principal reason why Cuellar’s lead is

much greater than that of his two fellow Democrats is that while only 8 percent and 2 percent of likely voters who cast a ballot for Donald Trump in 2024 intend to vote for Pulido and Gonzalez this fall, 23 percent plan on voting for Cuellar.”

President Donald Trump is underwater among likely voters in all three congressional districts, with 54%, 55% and 56% of likely voters in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34 disapproving of President Trump’s handling of his job as president, and only 40%, 36% and 40% approving, respectively. In a similar vein, President Trump is viewed unfavorably by 53%, 58% and 57% of likely voters in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, and favorably by 45%, 40% and 42%, respectively.

In the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 8%, 10%, and 11% in TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, respectively.

In the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Greg Abbott by 3%, 4%, and 4% in TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, respectively. A copy of the report can be found via this link.