In the Texas U.S. Senate Race, Talarico Leads Paxton by 2% & In the Texas Governor Race, Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 3%

Houston,TX-OCT 28—A new report from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Texas 2026: U.S. Senate, Governor, and Other Statewide Races, provides the vote intention and candidate evaluations of Texas likely voters in the November 2026 statewide races for U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner. The report is based on a representative survey of 2,000 November 2026 Texas likely voters (margin of error of +/- 2.19%) conducted between October 21 and October 25, 2026.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico (49%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (47%) by 2 percentage points, with 3% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 1% undecided.  While 99% of Democratic likely voters intend to vote for Talarico, and 0% for Paxton, only 88% of Republican likely voters intend to vote for Paxton, with 8% intending to cast a ballot for Talarico.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the Founding Director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, commented that “Paxton holds notable leads over Talarico among men, older voters and White voters, while Talarico enjoys noteworthy leads over Paxton among women, younger voters and voters of color, especially Black voters, who support Talarico over Paxton by an 82 to 16 percent margin.”

Among the 32% of likely voters who have a favorable opinion of Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, who lost to Talarico in the 2026 Democratic primary, 98% intend to vote for Talarico and 2% for Paxton. In contrast, among the 30% of likely voters who have a favorable opinion of U.S. Senator John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in the 2026 Republican primary, only 68% intend to vote for Paxton and more than one in four (27%) intend to vote for Talarico.

In the Texas Governor election, Republican Greg Abbott (50%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (47%) by 3 percentage points, with 2% of likely voters supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 1% undecided.

In other Texas statewide elections:

• Lieutenant Governor: Republican Dan Patrick (49%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (45%) by 4 percentage points, with 3% backing third party candidates and 3% undecided.
• Attorney General: Republican Mayes Middleton (49%) leads Democrat Nathan Johnson (45%) by 4 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 4% undecided.
• Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines (50%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (44%) by 6 percentage points, with 1% supporting third party candidates and 5% undecided.
• Land Commissioner: Republican Dawn Buckingham (50%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (44%) by 6 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Neill Snider and 4% undecided.
• Agriculture Commissioner: Republican Nate Sheets (48%) leads Democrat Clayton Tucker (44%) by 4 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Austin Kelly and 6% undecided.
• Railroad Commissioner: Republican Bo French (47%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (46%) by 1 percentage point, with 3% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 4% undecided.
• More than two-fifths of likely voters do not know enough about Goodwin (47%), Johnson (60%), Eckhardt (62%), Buckingham (63%), Rosenthal (63%), Sheets (65%), Tucker (66%) and Flores (67%) to have an opinion of them.

A link to the report can be found here.

About the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University conducts nonpartisan academic survey research on public opinion, elections, and public policy in Texas to contribute to the body of political science knowledge and to inform public understanding. The Center’s research is approved by the University’s Institutional Review Board, is funded by the University and philanthropic grants, and is not commissioned or funded by any candidate, campaign, or political party. Findings are released to the public in full. Contact: Dr. Michael O. Adams, Founding Director, michael.adams@tsu.edu, 713-313-7760.