New Survey Reveals Early Insights into Texas’s 2026 Election Landscape

In 2021, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of  Public Administration Program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University launched a five-year survey project to study Texas’s changing population. The fifth survey in the series was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions  about the 2026 elections, public policies, and energy use. The survey was conducted in English and  Spanish, with 1,650 YouGov respondents 18 years of age and older, resulting in a confidence interval  of +/-2.41% for the overall survey population. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on  gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education and are representative of the Texas registered voter population.  

The results of this 2025 statewide survey will be presented in four separate reports. This first report  examines vote intention in the 2026 Republican and Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primaries, vote  intention in the November 2026 U.S. Senate election, changes in the level of support among Texas  voters for President Donald Trump, and vote intention in the 2026 Republican Texas Attorney General  primary. Subsequent reports will examine Texans’ opinions on immigration and border security,  legislation passed during the 2025 Texas Legislature’s second special session including redistricting, and  Texas household energy use and concerns. 

Preliminary results from Texas Trends 2025: A Joint Report by UH and TSU show that in the 2026 Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the vote intention of likely primary voters is 34% for Ken Paxton, 33% for John Cornyn, and 22% for Wesley Hunt, with 11% unsure. Among women, Cornyn leads Paxton by 9% (37% to 28%) and Hunt by 19% (37% to 18%), while among men, Paxton leads Cornyn by 8% (38% to 30%) and Hunt by 14% (38% to 24%). In a two-way race, Cornyn (44%) leads Paxton (43%) by 1%, with 13% unsure. Vote intention in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary is 31% for Jasmine Crockett, 25% for James Talarico, 25% for Beto O’Rourke, and 13% for Colin Allred, with 6% unsure. Forty-five percent of Black Democratic primary voters intend to vote for Crockett. Among respondents who voted in the 2024 presidential election, 56% voted for Donald Trump and 43% for Kamala Harris; when asked in September 2025 how they would vote again, 49% said Trump and 45% Harris. In hypothetical November 2026 U.S. Senate face-offs, Republican candidates lead Democratic candidates by between 1% and 6%. In the 2026 Republican Texas Attorney General primary, the vote intention of likely primary voters is 40% for Chip Roy, 12% for Joan Huffman, 8% for Aaron Reitz, and 3% for Mayes Middleton, with 37% unsure.

Read the full report here.