Cornyn & Paxton Deadlocked With Talarico In Texas U.S. Senate Race

A new statewide survey of November 2026 Texas likely voters conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University finds the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race in a dead heat, regardless of whether U.S. Senator John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General is the Republican nominee facing off against the Democratic standard bearer, Texas State Representative James Talarico.

In a matchup where Cornyn is the Republican nominee, 45% of likely voters would cast a ballot for Cornyn and 44% for Talarico, with 3% opting for Libertarian Ted Brown and 8% undecided. In a matchup where Paxton is the Republican nominee, 45% of likely voters would cast a ballot for Paxton and 45% for Talarico, with 2% opting for Brown and 8% undecided.

In the November 2026 gubernatorial election, three-term Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democratic rival, Texas State Representative Gina Hinojosa, by six percentage points, 49% to 43%, with 3% favoring Libertarian Pat Dixon and 5% undecided. While 99% of likely voters know enough about Abbott to have an opinion of him, only 68% of likely voters know enough about Hinojosa to have an opinion of her.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, Founding Director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, noted that, “today, only 87% of Abbott voters say they will vote for either Cornyn or Paxton in November, with more than half of the 13 percent of Abbott voters who today aren’t voting Republican in the U.S. Senate race unsure about for whom they would vote this fall, and three percent saying that they will vote for Talarico regardless of whether Cornyn or Paxton is the Republican nominee.”

In the November 2026 race for lieutenant governor, three-term Republican Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leads his most likely Democratic rival, Texas State Representative Vikki Goodwin, by seven percentage points, 47% to 40%, with 3% of likely voters backing Libertarian Anthony Cristo, 1% supporting the Green Party’s Kevin McCormick, and 9% undecided. While 85% of likely voters know enough about Patrick to have an opinion of him, only 48% of likely voters know enough about Goodwin to have an opinion of her.

The overall survey from which these data are drawn was fielded between April 22 and May 6, 2026, with 1,223 (margin of error +/- 2.80%) Texas registered voters selected to participate in this module of the survey focused on the November 2026 midterm election based on their responses to a series of questions about their retrospective and prospective voting behavior.

The full report is available on the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center website.