Crockett Leads Talarico in Texas U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

A new report by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University examines the state of play in the March 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Election, just days after the December 8 candidate filing deadline and a little more than two months before the start of early voting in Texas. The report draws on a representative public opinion survey conducted between December 9 and December 11 of 1,600 Texans who are likely to vote in the March 2026 Democratic primary.

Following the last-minute decision by former congressman Colin Allred to end his senate bid and by Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett to enter the race, the March 2026 Democratic Party was converted into a de facto two-candidate faceoff between Crockett and Texas State Representative James Talarico.  The survey finds that today, Crockett leads Talarico in vote intention among likely Democratic primary voters by 8 percentage points, 51% to 43%, with 6% undecided.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University noted that Crockett’s lead over Talarico is “due in large part to her overwhelming support among Black voters, nine out of ten of whom intend to vote for Crockett,” while “Talarico remains competitive due to his majority support among White and Latino voters, with his vote intention especially high among White and Latino men”.

An overwhelming majority of likely Democratic primary voters have favorable opinions of both Crockett (85%) and Talarico (77%), with only a handful having an unfavorable opinion of either Crockett (9%) or Talarico (2%).  Crockett, however, is much better known among these likely Democratic primary voters than is Talarico, with 94% knowing enough about her to have an opinion, compared to 79% who know enough about Talarico to have an opinion about him.  Adams highlighted a noteworthy ethnic/racial difference in primary voter knowledge of Talarico, pointing out that “47% of Black primary voters do not know enough about Talarico to have an opinion of him, compared to only 15% of Latino and 14% of White primary voters.”

Among Other Findings:

• There exists a notable gender gap in support for the two candidates, with 57% of women intending to vote for Crockett and 36% for Talarico, and with 52% of men intending to vote for Talarico and 42% for Crockett.
• There also exists a notable difference in voter support for the two candidates related to age, with younger and middle-aged voters favoring Talarico by margins of 29% (18 to 34) and 9% (35 to 54) and older (55+) voters backing Crockett by a 25% margin.
• 53% of likely Democratic primary voters believe Crockett would be the most successful of the two candidates in mobilizing Democratic-leaning low propensity voters to turn out to vote for her in November 2026, compared to 34% who believe Talarico would be the most successful at this task.
• 58% of likely Democratic primary voters believe Talarico would be the most successful of the two candidates in convincing traditionally Republican voters to cross over and vote for him in November 2026, compared to 29% who believe Crockett would be the most successful at this task.

The full report can be found via this link. The representative survey of 1,600 March 2026 Texas Democratic Primary likely voters (margin of error of +/- 2.45%) upon which this report is based was fielded between December 9 and 11, 2025 by contacting registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were directed to an online survey platform. The likelihood of a respondent voting in the March primary was determined using a likely voter screen and information on past primary participation.