Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University Examines Texas Senate Race Ahead of 2026 Primaries

Ken Paxton is ahead of John Cornyn by 5% in the March 2026 Republican primary, while Beto O’Rourke is ahead of Colin Allred by 20% in the March 2026 Democratic primary

A new report by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University examines the state of play in the March 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Republican and Democratic primary elections six months before the start of early voting. The report draws on two August surveys of 1,500 likely 2026 Republican primary voters and of 1,500 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters.

In the Republican U.S. Senate primary, in a two-way race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Senator John Cornyn, the vote intention among likely Republican primary voters is 44% for Paxton and 39% for Cornyn, with 17% unsure. In a three-way race featuring Paxton, Cornyn and Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt, the vote intention is 35% for Paxton, 30% for Cornyn and 22% for Hunt, with 13% unsure. In a three-way race featuring Paxton, Cornyn and West Texas Congressman Ronny Jackson, the vote intention is 38% for Paxton, 33% for Cornyn and 15% for Jackson, with 14% unsure. In a series of two-way faceoffs, Paxton leads Jackson by 11% and Hunt by 7% while Cornyn leads Jackson by 8% and Hunt by 6%, with between 21% and 23% of likely Republican primary voters unsure how they would vote.

Dr. Michael O. Adams, the founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University said he believes “efforts by the Cornyn campaign over the summer to improve the senator’s image among Republican primary voters and to tarnish that of Paxton appear to be bearing fruit, with Cornyn now within striking distance of Paxton.”

While 98% and 97% of likely Republican primary voters know enough about Paxton and Cornyn to have an opinion about voting for them, only 66% and 59% know enough about Hunt and Jackson to have an opinion about voting for them. Adams commented that “while Paxton and Cornyn are well-known to virtually all Republican primary voters, for about one-third of likely Republican primary voters Hunt remains an unknown quantity, with more potential than both Paxton and Cornyn to increase his vote share.” 

Two-fifths (41%) of Republican primary voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate in the 2026 Texas GOP U.S. Senate primary who was endorsed by President Trump, while 17% say they would be less likely and 42% say the endorsement would have no impact.

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, in a two-way race between former congressman Colin Allred and former congressman Beto O’Rourke, the vote intention among likely Democratic primary voters is 58% for O’Rourke and 38% for Allred, with 4% unsure. In a two-way race between Allred and Texas State Representative James Talarico the vote intention is 50% for Allred, 43% for Talarico and 7% unsure. In a two-way race between Allred and Congressman Joaquin Castro the vote intention is 52% for Allred and 41% for Castro, with 7% unsure.

While 99% and 98% of likely Democratic primary voters know enough about O’Rourke and Allred to have an opinion about voting for them, a smaller proportion (87% and 74%) know enough about Castro and Talarico to have an opinion about voting for them.

Adams noted a sharp contrast in the attitudes of Republican and Democratic primary voters toward their best known nominees: “one-third of Republican primary voters say they would never vote for Paxton in the Republican primary and one-third say they would never vote for Cornyn compared to the one in twenty who say they would never vote for O’Rourke in the Democratic primary and the one in twenty who say they would never vote for Allred.”

Among Other Findings:

• Paxton owes his 5% lead over Cornyn in a two-way contest in part to his 20% advantage among born-again Protestants and his 18% lead among primary voters who do not have a four-year college degree.
• O’Rourke owes his 20% lead over Allred in a two-way contest in part to his 43% advantage among Latino primary voters and his 27% advantage among women.
• Allred owes his 7% lead over Talarico in a two-way contest in part to his 50% advantage among Black primary voters and his 13% advantage among women.
• Allred owes his 11% lead over Castro in a two-way contest in part to his 53% advantage among Black primary voters and his 14% advantage among women.
• More than two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump (77%), Texas Governor Greg Abbott (74%), U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (74%) and Elon Musk (70%).  
• Between two-thirds and one-half of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick (63%), Texas Attorney Geneal Ken Paxton (58%) and U.S. Senator John Cornyn (50%).

The full report can be found here:

The representative survey of Texas registered voters upon which the report is based was conducted between August 6 and August 12 2025, in English and Spanish. The two separate surveys of 1,500 Republican and of 1,500 Democratic likely 2026 primary voters each have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%.